Forecast for Tuesday, October 13, 2026

TODAY

Well, here we are, October 13th, and apparently Mother Nature has decided that the calendar is nothing more than a suggestion. After spending Sunday dumping nearly three inches of rain at SCPAWX headquarters in Palmyra, she's now turning around and giving us temperatures that belong somewhere in late August. I don't know whether we're supposed to be getting ready for Halloween or firing up the air conditioning again, but apparently we're going to do both this week. Welcome to Pennsylvania, where the weather changes its mind more often than a politician during an election year.

Any lingering patchy fog around Palmyra, Annville, Lebanon, Myerstown, Cornwall, Jonestown, and the surrounding communities should clear out this morning, leaving us with plenty of sunshine for the remainder of the day. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the upper 70s, generally around 78 to 80 degrees, with a few warmer locations possibly sneaking into the lower 80s. Southwest winds will increase somewhat during the afternoon, generally running around 10 to 15 mph, but otherwise this is shaping up to be an exceptionally pleasant day for anyone who doesn't mind October pretending it's still summer.

The sunshine will certainly help with the drying process following Sunday's impressive rainfall, but don't expect everything to be completely dry just because the sky looks nice. SCPAWX headquarters in Palmyra measured 2.90 inches of rain from Sunday's storm, with rainfall beginning at 4:34 Sunday morning and continuing until approximately 11:00 that night. Other locations around North Cornwall Township, Lebanon, Cornwall, and Jonestown reported more than three inches, so we've still got plenty of saturated ground across the area. Fields, yards, trails, and other poorly drained locations will need some additional time to recover. The sun might be back, but the mud apparently didn't receive its discharge papers.

TONIGHT

Mostly clear skies will continue tonight, with temperatures only dropping into the lower 60s by Wednesday morning, generally around 61 to 64 degrees. That's unusually mild for the middle of October, particularly when you consider that we're also looking at the possibility of frost by the end of the weekend. Southwest winds will remain noticeable at times, generally around 10 to 15 mph, but no significant weather concerns are expected overnight.

Some of the more sheltered rural locations around Schaefferstown, Fredericksburg, Newmanstown, and the valleys near the Blue Mountain may cool a little more efficiently than the developed areas around Lebanon and Palmyra. Localized patchy fog can't be completely ruled out where the ground remains especially wet, but widespread fog isn't expected to be a major issue. Otherwise, it's another comfortable evening to sit outside or open the windows and enjoy the fact that the heating system gets another night off. Just don't get too attached to that arrangement, because it's about to change rather dramatically.

TOMORROW

Wednesday brings another round of unusually warm weather, with partly to mostly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures climbing into the lower 80s, generally around 80 to 82 degrees. Palmyra, Annville, Lebanon, Myerstown, and the surrounding lower elevations should have a pretty good shot at reaching 80 degrees, while some of the higher terrain around Mount Gretna and the northern portions of the area may remain a few degrees cooler. We're talking temperatures running roughly 10 to 15 degrees above average, which is pretty impressive considering we're nearly halfway through October.

There is one small wrinkle in Wednesday's forecast. A weak cold front will approach and move through the region, bringing a slight opportunity for an isolated afternoon shower. The National Weather Service has introduced a 30 percent rain chance, although the overall setup still favors predominantly dry conditions. If a shower manages to develop, it should be brief and localized, possibly lasting only 10 or 15 minutes before moving along. Plenty of communities may not see a drop of rain, so there's absolutely no reason to start rearranging outdoor plans or preparing for another soaking. We've already had enough of that nonsense for one week.

Clouds will become more noticeable Wednesday evening and overnight as the front moves through, with temperatures falling into the middle 50s. That frontal passage will put an end to our little October heat wave, and Thursday will bring temperatures back toward something resembling seasonal reality. Apparently, Mother Nature decided we could have two days of summer before remembering that fall is supposed to involve cooler weather.

BOTTOM LINE

Thursday will bring a noticeable cooldown, with mostly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures generally in the upper 60s, around 67 to 69 degrees. That's a drop of roughly 12 to 15 degrees compared to Wednesday, but it actually puts us much closer to where we should be for the middle of October. North winds may become a little more noticeable during the morning, particularly around Jonestown, Fredericksburg, and the Blue Mountain corridor, before turning more easterly later in the day. Most of Thursday should remain dry, although clouds will begin increasing as another, stronger weather system approaches from the west.

Thursday night into Friday is when things become more interesting. A stronger cold front will bring showers into the region, with rain becoming likely Thursday night and continuing into at least part of Friday. Current guidance places rain chances around 80 percent, although this isn't expected to be another repeat of Sunday's nearly three-inch soaking. Showers should gradually diminish during Friday afternoon, possibly lingering a little longer in some eastern communities before clearing out toward evening. Temperatures may climb into the lower 70s ahead of the front, but colder air will begin pouring into the region once it passes.

The bigger concern Friday may actually be the wind. The National Weather Service is highlighting the possibility of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph as the stronger system moves through central Pennsylvania. That doesn't mean every backyard from Palmyra to Myerstown will see gusts that strong, but the potential is there, and we'll need to watch it closely. With plenty of autumn foliage still hanging on the trees, stronger gusts could knock down branches, scatter leaves everywhere, and generally create a mess. Anyone with Halloween decorations, patio furniture, or other lightweight items outside might want to make sure they're secured before Friday arrives. Those inflatable decorations aren't particularly aerodynamic, and I'd rather not see someone's twelve-foot skeleton taking an unscheduled trip down Main Street.

Saturday is when Mother Nature really decides to make her point. Mostly sunny skies are expected, but afternoon temperatures will struggle to climb out of the lower 50s, generally around 52 to 54 degrees. A brisk northwest breeze will make it feel considerably colder, especially across the more exposed areas around Fort Indiantown Gap, Jonestown, Fredericksburg, and the ridges along Blue Mountain. If you're planning to visit a pumpkin patch, head out for a fall festival, spend time at Memorial Lake, or take a walk around Mount Gretna, you're going to want a jacket. The shorts and T-shirt routine from Wednesday is going to be a pretty lousy idea unless you enjoy being unnecessarily miserable.

Saturday night into Sunday morning is when things get particularly interesting, especially for anyone still trying to keep their gardens alive. Overnight temperatures are expected to fall into the middle 30s, with colder rural valleys around Schaefferstown, Fredericksburg, Newmanstown, and the northern portions of the area potentially dropping closer to freezing. Widespread frost is becoming increasingly likely, and some of those colder sheltered locations could experience freezing temperatures if skies remain clear and winds diminish overnight. Even Palmyra, Annville, Lebanon, and Myerstown could see frost developing on grass, vehicles, and exposed surfaces. If you've still got flowers, vegetables, or other sensitive plants outside, now would be a pretty good time to start thinking about how you're going to protect them.

Sunday afternoon should be the better of the two weekend days for outdoor activities. Mostly sunny skies, lighter winds, and temperatures recovering into the upper 50s will make conditions considerably more comfortable than Saturday. It'll still be chilly, especially during the morning, but at least we won't be dealing with Saturday's combination of colder temperatures and gusty winds. Monday should continue the gradual recovery, with sunshine and afternoon temperatures returning to the lower 60s as the colder air begins moving out of the region.

Now, here's the ridiculous part of this whole forecast. We could be sitting around 82 degrees Wednesday afternoon and waking up Sunday morning to temperatures around 35 degrees. That's nearly a 50-degree temperature swing in four days. Wednesday you're thinking about turning the air conditioning back on, and Sunday morning you're standing outside wondering why there's frost on the windshield. Pennsylvania weather doesn't believe in gradually transitioning between seasons. Apparently, it prefers to throw the entire wardrobe at you and let you figure out what to wear.

SCPAWX will continue monitoring Friday's stronger cold front, the potential for strong wind gusts, and the developing frost and freeze threat for Sunday morning. Confidence remains fairly good in the overall pattern, but the exact timing of Friday's showers, how strong the winds become, and just how cold individual valleys get Sunday morning will need some additional refinement as we get closer.

SPONSOR SPOTLIGHT

Shay's Vending Service of Lebanon, Inc. continues to support independent, locally focused weather forecasting through SCPAWX. Serving businesses, organizations, and establishments throughout the Lebanon Valley, Shay's provides vending and amusement equipment backed by decades of experience. We appreciate their continued support of the work that goes into keeping our communities informed, whether we're dealing with severe thunderstorms, flooding, or Pennsylvania's latest attempt to cram three seasons into one week.

The Blue Bird Inn in Cornwall is our exclusive Lebanon County restaurant sponsor, and if you're looking for somewhere to grab dinner tonight, they've got a pretty good reason to stop in. Tuesday specials include a dozen wings for $12, boneless wings for $10, and Yuengling Flight pints for $3. Their daily Happy Hour runs from 3 to 5 PM, and the restaurant continues to feature its fall menu, including puff pastry-wrapped brie with blackberry-apricot jam, pumpkin seeds, and pita bread.

October is also Breast Cancer Awareness Month, and the Blue Bird Inn is participating with its Cosmo for a Cure, a pineapple Cosmo with $1 from each drink sold going to Lebanon Family Health Services. Looking ahead, they've also got trivia scheduled for Thursday evening from 7 to 9 PM and live music with Mike Foltz on Friday from 7 to 10 PM.

We appreciate both Shay's Vending Service and the Blue Bird Inn for supporting SCPAWX and helping keep independent weather coverage available throughout South Central Pennsylvania.