Forecast for Tuesday, October 13, 2026

TODAY

Well, here we are, nearly halfway through October, and apparently Mother Nature has decided that the calendar is merely a suggestion. After spending the weekend dumping several inches of rain across the region, she's now turning around and giving us temperatures that belong somewhere in late August. I'm beginning to think Pennsylvania weather operates without adult supervision, because we're looking at temperatures near 80 degrees today and Wednesday, followed by the possibility of frost this weekend. Apparently, experiencing three seasons in the same week is perfectly acceptable around here.

Any lingering patchy fog around York, Hanover, Dover, Dallastown, Red Lion, Shrewsbury, and the surrounding communities should clear out this morning, leaving us with plenty of sunshine for the remainder of the day. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the upper 70s, generally around 78 to 80 degrees, with a few warmer locations possibly sneaking into the lower 80s. Southwest winds should remain fairly light, and there are no significant weather concerns expected during the day. If you've been waiting for an opportunity to get outside after Sunday's soaking, today is shaping up to be a pretty good one.

Of course, just because the sun is shining doesn't mean the ground has magically forgotten what happened over the weekend. Shiloh reported 3.83 inches of rain from the storm, while Hanover recorded 3.81 inches, and several other locations across the area picked up substantial rainfall. That's a lot of water to work through the ground, and some fields, yards, trails, and poorly drained locations will remain saturated for a while longer. The sunshine will certainly help, but if you're planning to mow the lawn or work in the garden, don't be surprised if the ground has a slightly different opinion about whether it's ready. The mud apparently didn't get the memo that the storm is over.

TONIGHT

Mostly clear skies will continue tonight, with temperatures only dropping into the middle 60s by Wednesday morning, generally around 63 to 65 degrees. That's unusually mild for the middle of October, especially considering that we're also looking at the possibility of frost before the weekend is over. Southwest winds should remain relatively light, and there are no significant weather concerns anticipated overnight.

Some of the colder rural locations around Glen Rock, Seven Valleys, Stewartstown, and the valleys near the Maryland border may cool a little more efficiently than the developed areas around York and Hanover. Localized patchy fog can't be completely ruled out where the ground remains particularly wet, but widespread fog isn't expected to become a significant issue. Otherwise, it's another comfortable evening to enjoy the outdoors, open the windows, or appreciate the fact that the heating system gets another night off. Just don't get too comfortable with that arrangement, because Mother Nature is about to change the rules again.

TOMORROW

Wednesday brings another round of unusually warm October weather, with partly to mostly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures climbing into the lower 80s, generally around 80 to 82 degrees. York, Hanover, Dallastown, Red Lion, and the surrounding lower elevations should have little trouble reaching 80 degrees, while some of the higher terrain and rural valleys may remain a few degrees cooler. We're talking temperatures running roughly 10 to 15 degrees above average, which is a pretty impressive performance for a month that's supposed to be moving us toward colder weather.

A weak cold front will approach and move through the region later Wednesday. There is a slight possibility of a brief, isolated shower as the front crosses the area, but the overall setup continues to favor predominantly dry conditions. Most communities should get through the day without measurable rainfall, and this certainly isn't shaping up to be another widespread soaking. If a shower does manage to develop, it should be fairly brief and localized rather than something that ruins the entire afternoon. In other words, don't cancel your outdoor plans over a shower that may never show up in your particular backyard.

Clouds will become more noticeable Wednesday evening and overnight as the front moves through, with temperatures dropping into the upper 50s. That frontal passage will bring an end to our brief October heat wave, and Thursday will begin the transition back toward temperatures that actually belong on the calendar. Apparently, two days of summer in the middle of fall is all we're getting before the atmosphere remembers what season it's supposed to be.

BOTTOM LINE

Thursday will bring a noticeable cooldown, with partly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures generally in the middle 60s, around 65 to 67 degrees. That's a drop of roughly 15 degrees compared to Wednesday, but it actually puts us much closer to where we should be for the middle of October. Most of the daytime hours should remain dry, although clouds will gradually increase as another, stronger weather system approaches from the west. Winds will turn more easterly during the day, and by Thursday evening we'll begin watching the next round of showers moving toward the region.

Thursday night into Friday is when the next weather system becomes our primary concern. A stronger cold front will bring showers into the region, with rain becoming likely Thursday night and continuing into at least part of Friday. Current guidance places rain chances around 70 percent, with the better opportunity for showers during the morning and early afternoon. Temperatures may still climb into the middle 70s ahead of the front, but don't let that fool you. Once the front moves through, northwest winds will increase and considerably colder air will begin arriving. Showers should gradually taper off later Friday afternoon or toward evening, although the exact timing will need some additional fine-tuning.

The bigger concern Friday may actually be the wind rather than the rainfall. The National Weather Service is highlighting the possibility of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph as the stronger cold front moves through central Pennsylvania. That doesn't mean every backyard from Hanover to York will experience winds that strong, but the potential is there, and it's something we'll be keeping a close eye on. With plenty of leaves still hanging on the trees, stronger gusts could bring down branches, scatter leaves everywhere, and generally make a mess of things. If you've got Halloween decorations, patio furniture, or anything else outside that isn't particularly interested in remaining where you put it, Friday might be a good reason to secure it. Nobody needs to see their inflatable ghost taking an unscheduled trip down Route 30.

Saturday is when the weather really decides to make its point. Mostly sunny skies are expected, but afternoon temperatures will struggle to climb much beyond the lower to middle 50s, generally around 53 to 55 degrees. A brisk northwest breeze will make it feel considerably colder, especially across the more exposed areas around Dover, Manchester, Spring Grove, and the open countryside west of York. If you're planning to visit a pumpkin patch, spend time at Codorus State Park, enjoy the fall scenery around Gifford Pinchot State Park, or head out for a weekend festival, you'll want a jacket. The shorts and T-shirt routine from Wednesday is going to be a pretty lousy idea unless you're deliberately trying to prove something.

Saturday night into Sunday morning is when things get particularly interesting, especially for anyone still trying to keep their gardens alive. Temperatures are expected to fall into the middle 30s, with colder rural valleys around Glen Rock, Seven Valleys, Stewartstown, and the countryside near the Maryland border potentially dropping closer to freezing. Frost is becoming increasingly likely, and some of those sheltered locations could experience freezing temperatures if skies remain clear and winds diminish overnight. Even areas that remain a few degrees above freezing can develop frost on grass, vehicles, and exposed plants. Anyone still hanging onto late-season flowers, vegetables, or other sensitive plants should be thinking about protecting them before Saturday night arrives.

Sunday afternoon should be the better of the two weekend days for outdoor activities. Mostly sunny skies, lighter winds, and temperatures recovering into the upper 50s will make conditions considerably more comfortable than Saturday. It'll still be chilly during the morning, especially in those colder rural valleys, but at least we won't be dealing with Saturday's combination of low temperatures and gusty winds. Monday should continue the gradual recovery, with sunshine and afternoon temperatures returning to the lower to middle 60s as the colder air begins moving out of the region.

Now, here's the ridiculous part of this entire forecast. We could be sitting around 82 degrees Wednesday afternoon and waking up Sunday morning to temperatures near 35 degrees. That's nearly a 50-degree temperature swing in just four days. Wednesday you're thinking about turning the air conditioning back on, and Sunday morning you're standing outside wondering why there's frost on the windshield. Apparently, easing into autumn like a normal state was never part of the plan. Pennsylvania weather prefers to throw the entire wardrobe at you and let you figure out what to wear.

SCPAWX will continue monitoring Friday's stronger cold front, the potential for strong wind gusts, and the developing frost and freeze threat for Sunday morning. Confidence remains fairly good in the overall pattern, but the exact timing of Friday's showers, the strength of the winds, and just how cold individual rural valleys become Sunday morning will need additional refinement as we get closer. As always, remember that a countywide forecast describes the general weather pattern, not a guarantee that every backyard will experience identical conditions. That becomes especially important when we're talking about isolated showers Wednesday and frost development Sunday morning.

SCPAWX proudly recognizes Shay's Vending Service of Lebanon, Inc. and the Blue Bird Inn in Cornwall for their continued support of independent weather forecasting across South Central Pennsylvania. Their support helps us continue providing locally focused weather information without the usual corporate nonsense.