Updated every Sunday before noon. Because the weather doesn’t take weekends off, and apparently neither do we.

Sunday, June 7th, 2026 — June decided to show up early and hot.

May closed out playing identity crisis — 90s one week, Memorial Day washout the next. June said "hold my beer" and rolled in with ridging. After below average temps dominated most of May, the pattern flipped. We're staring down the barrel of 90s already by mid-week.

This week we actually pay for that May cool-down. Above average temps June 6–13, with the heat peaking June 10-13 in the low to mid 90s. Average highs are 77-80°F right now across SCPAWX country. So "above average" means AC season is officially deployed, not debated. Don't pack the hoodies away, but you're not reaching for them at 3pm.

The big picture? El Niño’s in uniform now. Niño 3.4 at +1.3°C, Niño 1+2 at +2.5°C as of June 3rd. CPC still hasn’t made the official call, but the Pacific’s already got its boots on the ground. El Niño summers here = near average temps, humidity you could cut with a spoon. Swamp season is reporting for duty, privates.

MJO is in Phase 8, Western Hemisphere, but it’s collapsing into the Circle of Death/NULL phase through early July. Translation: fast-moving pattern, no long heat waves or cold shots after this mid-June ridge. Just choppy, back-and-forth nonsense. Teleconnections are pulling CQ.

Precipitation trends stayed dry to start. June projections are holding at near to slightly below average, -0.0" to -1.0" with an especially dry first half. July’s cautiously optimistic at slightly above average, +0.5" to +1.0". The drought monitor’s unchanged from last week. SCPA got a drink on Memorial Day, but we’re back to rationing.

Next real rain chances: Cold front late Saturday night June 6 — maybe some late afternoon storms north. After that, another front around June 14/15. Between them? Ridging. Dry. Your lawn is about to file a grievance.

Breakdown of precipitation departures over the next several weeks:

June 6 – June 12: Below average. Dry window holds. Ridging has the high ground.

June 13 – June 19: Near average. Front around the 14th/15th might give us something.

June 20 – June 26: Near to slightly above average. Wetter periods more likely past mid-month.

June 27 – July 3: Near to slightly above average. Late June tries to remember how rain works.

July 4 – July 10: Near to slightly above average. Don’t ask me about fireworks weather yet — confidence is “low”.

July 11 – July 17: Near to slightly above average. El Niño summer paradigm kicks in. Near average temps, normal-ish rain.

In short: May ended cool. June starts hot and dry, then slowly remembers it’s supposed to be humid. El Niño’s taking the wheel in July, so expect soup that violates the Geneva Convention. No extended heat after mid-June, no extended cool — just ridging, then humidity.

Bottom line: Hydrate, check your AC filters, and don’t trust a “dry” 7-day. Water the stuff you’re emotionally attached to, because the sky isn’t helping this week. When severe weather is in the forecast for South Central PA, get the full breakdown and live alerts at https://www.scpawx.com/weather-alerts — because “the app said 0%” is how you end up watching your trampoline recon the neighborhood.

Stay cool, stay hydrated, and try not to let June smoke you on the first PT test of summer.

(SCPAWX Sidebar Summary)

May’s identity crisis got court-martialed. June’s here and it brought the heat.

That Memorial Day soaker is in the rearview. We traded cool, wet, and confused for ridging, sunshine, and a fast pass to the 90s. That 73°-and-hoodie weather from last week? Demobilized. Right now it’s 82° in Palmyra and the air smells like asphalt, sunscreen, and AC units crying for help.

Dry window slammed shut.

The break’s over. After a below-average May temp-wise, June kicked the door in with upper-air ridging. Cold front late Saturday 6/6 might pop a few storms — mainly north, mainly late — but don’t count on drought relief. Next real shot isn’t until June 14/15. Your lawn is about to go AWOL.

Pattern stays hot, then choppy into late June.

Temps run above average June 6–13, peaking low-mid 90s mid-week. Then the MJO collapses into the Circle of Death/NULL phase through early July. Translation: no long-term commitment from the atmosphere. Ridge now, fast-moving fronts later. No blowtorch July, no icebox. Just humidity that reports for duty without orders.

Rainfall’s taking a smoke break — but don’t get cocky.

May: Finished near average after that soaker bailed us out, -0.5″ to +0.5″.

June: Holding at near to slightly below average, -0.0" to -1.0" with a dry first half.

July: Cautiously optimistic for slightly above average, +0.5" to +1.0".

The drought monitor’s unchanged. SCPA got a drink last month. June’s “wetter finish” is still MIA until late month.

Breakdown by week:

June 6 – June 12: Below average. Ridging owns the AO. Dry window. Hydrate or die-drate.

June 13 – June 19: Near average. Front around 14th/15th might give us something. Maybe.

June 20 – June 26: Near to slightly above. Wetter periods more likely past mid-month.

June 27 – July 3: Near to slightly above. Late June tries to remember how rain works.

July 4 – July 10: Near to slightly above. Don’t ask about fireworks weather yet — confidence is “low”.

July 11 – July 17: Near to slightly above. El Niño summer paradigm kicks in. Near average temps, normal-ish rain.

El Niño’s boots are on the ground and digging in.

Niño 3.4: +1.3°C. Niño 1+2: +2.5°C as of June 3rd. Still not “official” from CPC, but the Pacific’s already deployed. El Niño summer = near average temps, humidity thick enough to qualify as a CBRN threat. Welcome to the swamp, recruit.

Bottom line:

May ended cool and wet after a hot tantrum. June starts hot and dry, then trends toward soup. No extended heat waves after mid-month, just humidity and pop-up fronts. Trust the radar, not the 7-day.

Severe Weather? Don’t play guessing games. Get live timing, impacts, and alerts for South Central PA at https://www.scpawx.com/weather-alerts — because “the app said 0%” is how you end up watching your grill do a recon of the neighbor’s yard.